Why — exactly — should the coronavirus scare me, if at all?
What’s scary about the coronavirus isn’t the pneumonia-like symptoms. The common cold and flu are both more dangerous today in 2020, despite modern medicine. What is scary about the coronavirus is the public panic that has spread and begun to impact the global economy.
Today, we learned the stock market dropped in China and other parts of the world due to the travel restrictions imposed as a result of the rapid spreading of the coronavirus. It’s been over one week since the world learned from China there was a virus spreading and that the Lunar New Year holiday travel expected could exacerbate the issue.
This week, multi-national companies need to decide if they require in-person attendance for work. Companies already ordered their ex-patriot employees to leave China and used the word “evacuate” in the news to announce as such. Airlines need to decide if they persist the virus through their business. The phrase “flight cancellations” was used in the news but experts claimed in news interviews that the flights were cancelled due to lack of ticket sales. The customers were the trigger — not the company. Governments are called upon to decide if their borders will be shut, if not already. But, the W.H.O.’s news conference had experts saying limiting travel and shutting borders was extremely unnecessary.
In reading the headlines over the last four days, the message one receives is that there is an emergency. It’s real. It’s just not also armageddon.
So what are the reasons as to why this “virus” was being communicated in the manner that it was? What exactly is the emergency?
As soon as cases of contraction (not death) were reported outside of China’s official borders, panic spread because China’s government had not presented itself to be collaborative and forthcoming during the SARS epidemic. Local conversations — unfortunately — did not say this. Dinner table, phone and LINE conversations discussed how similar this disease was to SARS. Conversations talked began to compare it with SARS and MERS immediately without ever explaining to the masses what steps were skipped in that discussion. You might be wondering why we are raising this point.
We are raising this communication miss because we know the scientific method likely didn’t allow the doctors and scientists to have missed those steps. They most likely checked every step. They might even have triple-checked multiple steps before going on international TV to make proclamations about a pending, possible epidemic. People who know more are not usually more careless. They are usually more careful, bordering over-conservative.
The patients, however, did not get this benefit because it wasn’t actually the scientists announcing and spreading the news initially. It was media companies, which thrive on the business of news “going viral.” (Pun intended.) It was also media companies choosing to edit language they rightfully know the public wouldn’t understand. They need to simplify the messages and help the scientists and doctors talk to the perverbial patient.
The public — the people who were receiving the news — may have gotten the over-edited version. Or, they just still have residual fear from the recent epidemics. SARS and MERS were also “caught late.” Perhaps a lesson learned here is that there are times when summaries and simplification are not appropriate.
As of this publication, the statistics reported for how many cases, deaths, etc. remain questionable. The People’s Daily reports over 17,000 cases worldwide, but other sources claim the total number of cases are around 14,000. The number of deaths reported is over 350, but the NY Times shared the possibility that initial death counts may have overlooked many deaths in mainland China that were a result of the coronavirus — they just were left out of the count.
Immigrant populations of far east Asian countries worldwide are experiencing racism and discriminatory harassment because some cannot tell the difference between Asian nationalities. More importantly, people cannot tell the difference between the coronavirus and the common cold or flu. The symptoms are the same.
In following the World Health Organization and keeping up with the Center for Disease Control, the public health emergency is real. However, it is one that remains new and unknown. We know what symptoms to look for but it can appear like the regular flu. Only testing done by doctors can confirm which virus or bacteria one’s symptoms result from.
Now, the scare has grown in scope and the messaging now is about both contraction of the illness as well as impact to the global economy.
What is going to happen?
The uncertainty is unsettling.
That’s all. It’s uncertainty and the natural human instinct to survive. That emotion is what is driving the headlines, the endless statistics reports, the market indices drops, etc.
At the local level, people want to know if enough medical face masks will be manufactured in time so they don’t need to get rations. At a macro level, economists and bankers want to know how best to price the possible epidemic so they don’t lose too much money if a factory is shut down temporarily. At the human level, people want to know they aren’t going to die but won’t promise to be rational about their reactions.
We aren’t out of the woods yet.
If your company has business or operational teams residing in mainland China, what is your company doing? What is the communication?
If you have family or friends in or interacting with mainland China, what is your family doing? What is the communication?
How are you — author of those communications — remaining calm?